¿Se mantendrá la tregua con Irán? Qué pasa cuando acaben las dos semanas | IranWarRoom.com
La tregua entre EE. UU. e Irán vence hacia el 22 de abril de 2026. Qué incluye el acuerdo, por qué ya se resquebraja y qué ocurre si fracasan las conversaciones.
IranWarRoom.com April 10, 2026 · Conflict intelligence & analysis The guns have gone mostly quiet. But the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, Lebanon is still burning, and both sides cannot even agree on what the ceasefire covers. The clock is ticking — here is what happens next. Ceasefire status — April 10, 2026: The two-week ceasefire took effect April 8. It is set to expire around April 22. Peace talks are scheduled to begin today in Islamabad, Pakistan. VP JD Vance is leading the U.S. delegation. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Israel continues striking Lebanon. Both sides claim victory. What happened? On the evening of April 7, 2026 — less than two hours before President Trump's deadline to destroy Iran's power plants and bridges — a ceasefire was announced. Pakistan brokered the deal. Trump posted it on Truth Social. Iran confirmed it shortly after. After 38 days of war — after more than 13,000 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, after Iran fired hundreds of mi
ssiles at Israel and U.S. bases across the Gulf, after the Strait of Hormuz was shut down and gas prices spiked 39%, after at least 3,400 Iranians and 13 American service members were killed — the shooting mostly stopped. Mostly. Because within hours of the ceasefire taking effect, Israel launched what it called its largest coordinated strike on Lebanon since the war began — more than 100 Hezbollah targets hit in just 10 minutes. Over 250 people were killed in Lebanon that day. Black smoke rose over Beirut during morning rush hour. Lebanon declared a national day of mourning. And that is the problem. This ceasefire was broken before it even had a chance to breathe. What the ceasefire actually says Here is the deal in simple terms: the U.S. and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other for two weeks. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And both sides would use the two-week window to negotiate a permanent peace deal, using Iran's 10-point proposal and America's 15-point proposal a
s a starting point. The talks would happen in Islamabad, Pakistan, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif mediating. Vice President JD Vance would lead the U.S. delegation. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are also reportedly involved. That is the simple version. The complicated version? Nobody agrees on what the deal actually covers. Five cracks that could break the ceasefire The ceasefire is not just fragile — it is already showing major cracks. Here are the five biggest threats to the deal surviving its two-week window. Crack #1: The Lebanon dispute This is the single biggest threat to the ceasefire. Iran, Hezbollah, and Pakistan all say the ceasefire includes Lebanon. The U.S. and Israel say it does not. On the very first day, Israel bombed Beirut with the heaviest strikes of the entire war. Iran's IRGC warned of a "regretful response" if attacks on Lebanon do not stop. Hezbollah briefly paused its own attacks, then resumed rocket fire into northern Israel, sayin
g it would keep shooting until Israel stops. If this contradiction is not resolved, it could collapse the entire deal. Iran's president has called a ceasefire in Lebanon an "essential condition" for success. Crack #2: The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked The whole reason the ceasefire exists is because Trump threatened total destruction if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway where 20% of the world's oil normally flows. Iran said it would reopen it. But as of April 9, the strait remains effectively closed. Only about four ships — carrying dry cargo, not oil — made it through on the first day. Iran is charging tolls reportedly over $1 million per ship and requiring all vessels to coordinate with its military. The UN estimates about 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to pass. The White House insists the strait is open. The data says otherwise. Crack #3: Gulf states are still getting hit On the first day of the ceasefire, I
ran launched drone and missile attacks against Kuwait (28 attacks), the UAE (35 attacks), Qatar (7 intercepted), and Saudi Arabia (a pipeline hit directly). Iran said these were retaliation for strikes on Iranian oil facilities. A fire broke out at Abu Dhabi's Habshan gas complex. Iraqi-based Iranian proxy groups struck near Baghdad International Airport. These are not minor incidents. They undermine the core premise of a ceasefire — that the shooting has stopped. Crack #4: Nuclear uranium remains unresolved This is the deepest and most dangerous fault line. Iran reportedly holds about 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium — enough raw material to potentially build roughly 11 nuclear weapons. The U.S. wants Iran to give up this stockpile and commit to zero enrichment. Iran demands its right to enrich be recognized as a non-negotiable point. This issue caused negotiations to collapse before the war started, back in February. It is widely expected to be the hardest point to resolve in Is
lamabad. Key quote: Trump said Iran's uranium would be "perfectly taken care of" but gave no details. Iran's atomic energy chief said any attempt to limit enrichment "would fail." Crack #5: Nobody trusts each other Iran was attacked while it was in active negotiations with the U.S. in February. It happened again during the Twelve-Day War in 2025. Iran's hardliners point to this history and argue that any ceasefire is just a pause for America and Israel to regroup. Hossein Shariatmadari, a prominent conservative media figure in Iran, publicly argued that the U.S. "cannot be trusted" and that the ceasefire would be used to prepare for the next round of attacks. On the other side, Trump said U.S. forces will remain deployed around Iran "until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with." He added: "If for any reason it is not... then the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger and better and stronger than anyone has ever seen before." Iran's 10-point plan vs. America's 15-point plan
These are the two documents that negotiators in Islamabad will try to bridge. They are far apart. Issue Iran's 10-point plan U.S. 15-point plan Strait of Hormuz Reopen under Iranian military control Full, immediate, unconditional reopening Nuclear program Iran keeps right to enrich uranium Zero enrichment; surrender stockpile Sanctions Remove all primary & secondary sanctions Sanctions relief tied to compliance Lebanon War must stop on all fronts including Lebanon Lebanon not included in ceasefire U.S. military Full withdrawal from the region No mention of withdrawal War damages U.S. must pay compensation to Iran No mention of compensation UN resolutions End all UNSC & IAEA resolutions on Iran New IAEA verification regime Non-aggression Permanent U.S. guarantee of non-aggression Not publicly stated Look at that table. On almost every major issue, the two sides want opposite things. That is why experts are not optimistic. Analyst view: Iran expert Trita Parsi said the talks coul
d fail, but noted that "the terrain has shifted" — Trump's use of force "has blunted the credibility of American military threats, introducing a new dynamic into U.S.-Iran diplomacy." Ceasefire timeline: What has happened so far April 5 Pakistan introduces 45-day ceasefire proposal. Iran rejects it, submits its own 10-point plan instead. April 6 Trump calls Iran's 10-point plan "significant" but "not good enough." Sets 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline to destroy power plants and bridges. April 7 (evening) Less than 2 hours before deadline, Trump announces two-week ceasefire on Truth Social. Pakistan confirms. Iran accepts. April 8 (morning) Ceasefire takes effect. Israel immediately launches largest strike on Lebanon since the war began — 100+ Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes. 250+ killed. April 8 (afternoon) Iran reports strait "closed" again over Israeli attacks in Lebanon. White House denies it. Only 3–4 ships transit. Gulf states report Iranian drone and missile attacks. April 9 Lebanon d
eclares national day of mourning. Trump tells Netanyahu to "low-key" Lebanon operations. Hezbollah resumes rocket fire. Pakistan urges restraint. April 10 Islamabad peace talks scheduled to begin. VP Vance leads U.S. delegation. Netanyahu agrees to direct talks with Lebanon's government. ~April 22 Ceasefire set to expire. If no deal is reached, Trump has warned bombing will resume "bigger and better and stronger than anyone has ever seen." What happens if the ceasefire fails? Let's be blunt about what is at stake here. If talks collapse and the ceasefire expires without a deal, Trump has explicitly promised to resume strikes — and to go further than before. Before the ceasefire, he threatened to destroy Iran's power plants, bridges, and civilian infrastructure. He used the phrase "a whole civilization will die tonight." Pope Leo XIV called that threat "truly unacceptable." Iran, for its part, still has weapons. U.S. officials estimate Iran retains about half its missile launchers and h
alf its drone fleet. Its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has publicly said Iran is studying "the opening of other fronts" where America is "highly vulnerable." The Houthis in Yemen could escalate. Hezbollah could expand operations. Iranian proxy groups in Iraq have already been active during the ceasefire. And then there is oil. Gas prices in the U.S. are already up 39% since the war began, averaging $4.14 per gallon. If the strait stays closed, prices will go higher. The International Energy Agency has already released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest intervention in IEA history. That supply cushion will not last forever. The global economy is watching this ceasefire like a patient on life support watches the heart monitor. What happens if it succeeds? The best-case scenario is that Islamabad produces a framework for a permanent deal: Iran gives up or downgrades its enriched uranium, the strait fully reopens, sanctions get a phased rollback, and the war
ends. Oil prices crash. Markets surge. The U.S. pulls back its military posture. Is this likely? Most experts say no — at least not in two weeks. The issues are too deep and the trust deficit is too wide. But a framework deal that extends the ceasefire while details get worked out? That is the realistic hope. NPR's Mara Liasson offered a pragmatic take: she expects Trump will "make the concessions and claim total and complete victory. That's what he usually does." If gas prices drop fast, the political fallout may be manageable heading into midterm elections. What this means for everyday people around the world You do not have to live in Iran, Israel, or Lebanon for this ceasefire to affect your life. If you drive a car, buy groceries, heat your home, or have money in a retirement account, this war — and whether this ceasefire holds — matters to you directly. At the gas pump and the grocery store: U.S. gas prices have jumped about 39% since the war started, hitting $4.14 per gallon on
average; the spike has been worse in Europe and Asia. Oil also raises shipping costs for food, goods, and fertilizer — costs that show up at checkout, especially in lower-income countries. In markets and jobs: Equities rallied and oil fell when the ceasefire was announced, but that is relief, not recovery. A collapse in talks could erase those gains. Disrupted Gulf shipping has slowed some Asian factories and stressed energy-importing economies. For military families and civilians in the region: Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed; large deployments remain until Trump says Iran has complied. HRANA estimates more than 3,400 Iranians killed, including over 1,600 civilians; Lebanon has seen over 1,500 killed and 1.2 million displaced. Even now, Gulf states are intercepting missiles and drones. For many people, "ceasefire" does not yet mean "safe." This is not a distant war. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for the global economy. When it closes, the world gets more expensiv
e, more unstable, and more dangerous — whether you live in Tehran, Tel Aviv, Tokyo, or Texas. Bottom line: This ceasefire is not peace. It is a pause. The war stopped, but none of the reasons the war started have been resolved. The next two weeks will determine whether the pause becomes a path to a deal — or a countdown to something worse. Pay attention to three things: the Strait of Hormuz ship count, the Islamabad talks, and whether Israel's operations in Lebanon escalate or pull back. Frequently asked questions When does the Iran ceasefire expire? The two-week ceasefire began on April 8, 2026, meaning it is set to expire around April 22. If no permanent agreement is reached by then, both sides have warned that fighting could resume. What are the terms of the ceasefire? The U.S. and Iran suspend strikes for two weeks. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides use Iran's 10-point plan and the U.S. 15-point plan as the basis for peace negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, m
ediated by Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif. Is the Strait of Hormuz actually open? Barely. Only a handful of dry cargo ships have transited since the ceasefire. Iran is charging tolls exceeding $1 million per vessel and requiring military coordination. About 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers remain stranded. The strait is effectively still closed to normal commercial traffic. Is Lebanon included in the ceasefire? Disputed. Iran, Hezbollah, and Pakistan say yes. The U.S. and Israel say no. Israel launched massive strikes on Lebanon hours after the ceasefire began. This disagreement is the single largest threat to the ceasefire holding. What is Iran's 10-point peace plan? Iran demands: a non-aggression guarantee, continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, the right to enrich uranium, removal of all sanctions, ending UN and IAEA resolutions against Iran, compensation for war damages, full U.S. military withdrawal from the region, and an end to fighting in Lebanon. What happens if the ceasefire
collapses? Trump has warned that bombing resumes "bigger and better and stronger" than before. He previously threatened to destroy power plants, bridges, and civilian infrastructure. Iran has warned it may open new war fronts and that Houthi allies in Yemen may escalate. U.S. forces remain deployed around Iran. Who is mediating the peace talks? Pakistan is the primary mediator. PM Shehbaz Sharif brokered the ceasefire and invited both delegations to Islamabad for April 10 talks. China has also been advising Iran. VP JD Vance leads the U.S. delegation, with envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also involved. What about Iran's nuclear program? Iran holds roughly 460 kg of 60% enriched uranium — potentially enough for ~11 nuclear devices. The U.S. wants zero enrichment and full surrender of the stockpile. Iran insists on its right to enrich. This was the issue that collapsed pre-war talks and is expected to be the hardest to resolve. Sources Wikipedia — 2026 Iran war ceasefire Al Jazeer
a — US-Iran ceasefire deal: terms and what's next (Apr 8, 2026) CNN — Iran's 10-point plan and ceasefire terms (Apr 8, 2026) NPR — Latest on the ceasefire agreement (Apr 8, 2026) NPR — Fragile ceasefire shows cracks (Apr 8, 2026) NPR — Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon talks (Apr 9, 2026) The National — Iran's 10-point peace plan (Apr 8, 2026) Jerusalem Post — Iran's 10-point plan (Apr 9, 2026) Euronews — Strait closure threat (Apr 9, 2026) UN News — Strait of Hormuz hopes (Apr 8, 2026) CNBC — Markets and fragile ceasefire (Apr 8, 2026) Gulf Business — Iran's 10-point proposal (Apr 7, 2026) European Council — Leaders' statement (Apr 8, 2026) CSIS — Latest analysis on the Iran war © 2026 IranWarRoom.com · Conflict intelligence and news aggregation. This article is for informational purposes only. IranWarRoom.com is an independent, nonpartisan news platform.